ObamaNotes

Reports today suggest that Barack Obama may be on the verge of a big breakout in New Hampshire. I'm not a Democrat and who they nominate is their business. Here are some random thoughts, though.

First, after Obama's big victory in lily-white Iowa some people got all misty-eyed about how far we've come in race relations, that finally a black man is a legitimate candidate, etc etc. Please, pull yourselves together. It is precisely because he is black that Senator Obama has been so successful as a candidate.

As Daniel Larison says, would a white first-term Midwestern Senator with little prior experience and a ho-hum liberal voting record be getting the adulation that Obama does? Even if he gave a stemwinder of a speech? I think not. Obama is good, but his race is the main reason people give him a second look. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, but spare me the talk about America finally turning color-blind. We're not there yet.

Second, we should not forget that Obama is arguably the most pro-abortion presidential candidate ever. That's what Terry Jeffrey of Human Events said on EWTN last week. Obama opposed the ban on partial-birth abortions, and even worked to kill a law in Illinois that would have mandated babies born alive after botched abortions be given medical care. For all his soaring rhetoric about change and responsibility, Obama might be better described as the candidate of infanticide.

Third, there is an outrageous e-mail floating around about Obama and his alleged Muslim heritage. Click here if you haven't seen it. The origin of the message is unknown but it appears Hillary Clinton supporters have taken particular glee in forwarding it to everyone they know. Among the charges is that Obama is some kind of closet radical Muslim and that he insisted on taking his oath of office on the Koran rather than the Bible.

The message invites readers to check Snopes.com for verification. I did so, and Snopes actually debunks most everything the letter says. Click here and here to see for yourself. There are a few grains of truth and things that can't be proven, but for the most part the e-mail is a political hit job of the lowest kind. There are plenty of reasons to oppose Senator Obama's presidential aspirations; his history on abortion alone guarantees he will never get my vote. There's no need to spread lies about his background.

The message about Obama and Islam reminds me of another one that asked "Can a good Muslim be a good American?" I dealt with it here.

Vengeance is Whose?

Several states now have laws making sexual assault of children a death-penalty offense, even if the victim is not murdered as well. One man in Louisiana has actually been sent to death row on this basis. The Supreme Court just agreed to review his case to see if the penalty is constitutional. LaShawn Barber hopes they uphold the sentence.

Any sort of sexual assault on a child is, of course, a heinous offense and the impulse for vengeance is understandable. Yet like most impulsive decisions, it's also wrong and potentially counterproductive. I explained why here some time ago.

Among other reasons, consider this: in most cases of rape there are no witnesses except the victim. If we make the rape itself a capital crime, then what incentive do we create for the rapist? Answer: kill your victim. If he's lucky he will get away with the crime because now there are no witnesses. If he gets caught anyway, then he is no worse off because the additional crime of murder brings no added punishment. The only one who is worse off is the victim, who now gets to die after being raped.

The deterrent effect of such laws is also questionable. Anyone who would rape an eight-year-old girl, as the man in the Louisiana case did, isn't thinking clearly in the first place and probably has some kind of mental illness. Even if they are able to cognitively process the existence of such laws, the prospect of execution doesn't seem likely to stop them from acting on their perverse desires.

Rape is a crime that is also uniquely vulnerable to false prosecution. Just this week I read (via Mark Shea) about a man from Dallas who served 26 years in prison for a rape that DNA evidence now proves he did not commit. When we have prosecutors like Mike Nifong in this country, it's easy to believe some innocent people will be executed as a result of laws like these.

I had a personal brush with the death penalty many years ago and told the story here. I'm not totally against capital punishment - but I think the cases where it is truly justified are extremely rare.

Now The Gloves Come Off

So Huckabee and Obama won the Iowa caucuses, by surprisingly big margins in both cases. I watched Obama's victor speech last night. While I disagree with him on pretty much everything politically, I have to admit he's good. Rhetorically, Obama will easily outshine any of the Republicans if he gets the nomination.

Meanwhile the pundits have already settled on a party-line for Huckabee: he won big in Iowa because of the large evangelical Christian population, and won't be able to duplicate it in bigger states. A lot of people are pointing out that Pat Robertson won the Iowa caucuses in 1988. True enough, but Huckabee seems to be connecting with people outside the Christian right, too. His populist rhetoric may be very well-timed with the economy weakening.

Also, I think there is a substantial amount of resentment among social conservatives who feel the GOP has taken advantage of them and given little in return. Darth Beckman said it best:

The Republican Party treats religious conservatives like the high school quarterback treats the homely girl - he's happy to make out with her behind the bleachers, but he doesn't want to be seen in public with her. Huckabee was dead on when he said the party expects us to show up and vote, but is horrified at the prospect of actually responding to our desires. I've always known the party leadership felt this way, but now every religious voter knows it.

The thing both Obama and Huckabee have in common is that they represent a firm rejection of their respective party establishments. Democrats are tired of Clinton. Republicans are tired of Bush. Neither wants more of the same, and large numbers of people see Obama and Huckabee as a break from the past. Whether this is actually true or not isn't the point. The point is that people have that impression and are acting accordingly.

The establishment candidates aren't going to give up easily. Now is where the real fun begins. I predict you will see dirt flying in the next few days. It will be well-disguised but you can bet the Clinton and Romney campaigns will bring out the sharpest knives they can find. It may well backfire on them, but with the stakes this high they will do what it takes.

I'm not counting out Rudy Giuliani just yet, either. His campaign appears to be on life support at this point, but if the others damage each other badly enough Rudy could still be the last man standing.

And so it begins.

Mandatory Safe Sex IV

Last year I had a series of posts (here, here, and here) about Texas Governor Rick Perry's attempt to force parents to administer the cervical cancer vaccine Gardasil to all young girls. The political support and contributions Perry received from the drug's manufacturer was pure coincidence, of course. Ultimately he gave up under pressure from the state legislature. Parents are free to have their children vaccinated if they wish, but it is not mandatory.

At the time Perry's opponents argued that the vaccine was untested and not proven safe. Today's news suggests they may have had a point.

Health officials have touted the Gardasil vaccine as an important new protection against a cancer-causing sexually transmitted virus. In recent months, they've also noted reports of pain and fainting from the shot.

During its first year of use, reports of girls fainting from vaccinations climbed, but it's not clear whether the pain of the cervical cancer vaccine was the reason for the reaction....

Officials at Merck & Co., which makes the vaccine, acknowledge the sting. They attribute it partly to the virus-like particles in the shot. Pre-marketing studies showed more reports of pain from Gardasil than from dummy shots, and patients reported more pain when given shots with more of the particles.

Meanwhile, U.S. health officials have noticed a rise in reports of vaccine-associated fainting in girls. From 2002-2004 there were about 50 reports of fainting; from 2005 until last July, there were about 230. About 180 of those cases followed a shot of Gardasil, which came on the market in 2006.

Keep in mind that the virus Gardasil supposedly prevents is caused exclusively by sex. It doesn't spread by casual contact. The reports of pain and fainting make the whole idea of giving it to sixth-grade girls even more ludicrous.

Anticipating 2008

At this time of year we are always treated to a flurry of predictions for the new year. Unfortunately I cannot join the fun because my crystal ball is out of order. For your enjoyment, however, here are a few things I suspect will dominate the headlines for the next twelve months.

U.S. Presidential Election: If you're already tired of the endless campaign, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Tomorrow nigh week real people in Iowa will actually start selecting delegates to the national party conventions. Then things will start to happen really fast, and we ought to know who the two nominees will be sometime in the next few weeks. Then we will be treated to fun of a different kind as the two finalists spend months slinging rocks at each other. There's a good chance that one, and possibly both, candidates will be senators, which means every single vote in the U.S. Senate will become a presidential campaign issue. Congress may just grind to a complete halt - which wouldn't be such a bad thing, actually.

Troops Withdraw From Iraq: The "surge" strategy may or may not be working, depending who you ask and how they measure success, but one way or the other the U.S. military commitment in Iraq should start to fall significantly this year. The Pentagon simply can't sustain current troop levels for another year unless they lengthen tours beyond 15 months. Hopefully the force reduction will be orderly and the Iraqis will be able to maintain order on their own.

New War Fronts: The troops who leave Iraq may not get much rest before finding themselves in another hotspot somewhere around the Gulf. Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey are all potential destinations. Iraq will not be the last campaign of the War on Terror.
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Geopolitics: Apart from the Middle East there are plenty of other trouble spots. Radical Islam is moving into Asia and Africa, for instance. It will be interesting to see how Russia develops when Putin moves from president to prime minister. North Korea, Venezuela, and other potential enemies will bear watching. The summer Olympics in Beijing will have vast political implications.

Pope Visit U.S.: Pope Benedict XVI will visit New York and Washington in April. He is scheduled to address the United Nations and meet with President Bush. The publicity surrounding this will be intense and coming in the midst of the presidential campaign it will inevitably turn political.

Culture War: The movie and TV writer's strike, if it drags on, may have the pleasant side-effect of sparing us from Hollywood's worst indignities, at least temporarily. Don't applaud too quickly, though; they will find new and innovative ways to pipe garbage into your home.

Bolt from the Blue: It's the things you don't expect that always matter the most. The possibilities are endless: another 9/11, nuclear war in the Mideast, bird flu pandemic, economic collapse, you name it. At some point in 2008 we'll get an ugly surprise, and maybe more than one. Should we worry about it? No. Just be ready. You can save time if you start praying now.

I can say with complete confidence is that this time next year, things will be a lot different. In what ways? I'll get back to you on that.

New Day's Resolutions

I've never been much for New Year's resolutions. I know they will fall by the wayside within a few weeks, if not days, so it's easy to say "Why bother?"

Jen has the answer in another excellent Et Tu post. It comes to us from Pope Blessed John XXIII, who wrote something called the Decalogue for Daily Living. This is a kind of ten commandments, with a twist: you just have to follow them for just one day. We can handle anything for just one day, right? With that success under your belt, just do it again the next day. Breaking the big challenges into small pieces makes success a lot easier.

That's the theory, at least. It's plausible enough that I feel like giving it a try this year. Here's the list:

Daily Decalogue of Pope John XXIII

1. Only for today, I will seek to live the livelong day positively without wishing to solve the problems of my life all at once.
   
   
2. Only for today, I will take the greatest care of my appearance: I will dress modestly; I will not raise my voice; I will be courteous in my behavior; I will not criticize anyone; I will not claim to improve or to discipline anyone except myself.
   
   
3. Only for today, I will be happy in the certainty that I was created to be happy, not only in the other world but also in this one.
   
   
4. Only for today, I will adapt to circumstances, without requiring all circumstances to be adapted to my own wishes.
   
   
5. Only for today, I will devote ten minutes of my time to some good reading, remembering that just as food is necessary to the life of the body, so good reading is necessary to the life of the soul.
   
   
6. Only for today, I will do one good deed and not tell anyone about it.
   
   
7. Only for today, I will do at least one thing I do not like doing; and if my feelings are hurt, I will make sure no one notices.
   
   
8. Only for today, I will make a plan for myself: I may not follow it to the letter, but I will make it. And I will be on guard against two evils: hastiness and indecision.
   
   
9. Only for today, I will firmly believe, despite appearances, that the good Providence of God cares for me as no one else who exists in this world.
   
   
10. Only for today, I will have no fears. In particular, I will not be afraid to enjoy what is beautiful and to believe in goodness. Indeed, for twelve hours I can certainly do what might cause me consternation were I to believe I had to do it all my life.

Admittedly, anyone who actually manages to do all these things even for one day ought to be a candidate for sainthood. Nonetheless they are worthy goals for 2008. Give them a try. And be sure to read Jen's post for some more good thoughts.